Well, the results are in. As of November 1st, the market has already decided who the next president will be. (If you missed how this works exactly, check back here)
Take a look:
(Soruce: TD Thinkorswim)
As you can see, the stock market thinks that Donald Trump is the candidate most likely to win the next presidential election. If you remember from my other post (Can the Stock Market really predict the next president) you’ll recall that when the market closes the day lower on November 1st then it closed on July 31st, it means the next president will be from a new political party, or in this case, Donald Trump.
How accurate is this?
In the past, when the market finished below the July 31st price on November 1st, as it did this year, It accurately predicted the president 86% of the time.
Correlation doesn’t equal Causation
A word of caution. Just because this metric has worked in the past, it doesn’t necessarily mean it can accurately predict the president. It could just be simple coincidence. So again, we will still have to wait until November 8th, to see if this proves accurate. But with Trump gaining in the polls it does make me wonder…
And so, for my next post I’m going to ask the question:
Is Canada Wrong about Donald Trump?
Stay tuned. It’s almost ready…
Thanks for reading,
We’ll talk again soon.
~Ryan Chudyk~
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