(Source: South Park)
Donald Trump.
Those two words have a lot more power than they used to. They tend to stir up a lot of different emotions in people these days. They have the power to start an argument, make people angry, and they also have the power to be President of the United States...
Donald Trump used to be this cheesy guy, with a funny haircut, and a reality TV show host who seemed to enjoy the sound of his own voice too much.
Now he's the next potential president of the United States, who probably still enjoys the sound of his own voice too much…
Now, before I begin, I should mention something I believe and most will agree with. Donald Trump is a severely flawed man. He appears to be a bit racist, sexist, and probably a bunch of other 'ists' that just make him an overall bad human person.
But, that may not make him a bad president… I’ll show you what I mean shortly. But, If we ignore all those flaws (though not easy to do) could The Donald be an OK president? Or maybe even a good one?
Could Canada be wrong about Donald Trump?
What we're going to discuss
I’ll go over what the majority of Canadians currently thinks about Donald Trump.
We’ll cover two billionaires who support him, and why they think he’s the better choice
Why Peter Thiel makes me think twice about Trump as president.
Is he going to be good or just good enough?
Either way It should be interesting to say the least.
What Canada Thinks about Donald Trump
To most of the people in Canada this may be obvious, and maybe pointless for me to say, but if you live in the US or in a different part of Canada, your views could be dramatically different.
So, let me first give you a little bit of background so you can understand where this opinion is coming from…
I live in beautiful Alberta, Canada. Alberta is known for basically two things; its oil fields and, well, its fields (I'm talking about farming, in case that joke didn't Land… hah!). Alberta is very 'Country' at heart, we tend to lean politically right, and some may say we are usually a couple steps behind the rest of Canada when it comes to being Politically Correct/open minded.
So what do the Canadian's in Alberta think about Trump?
Honestly? A majority of us think he is a big joke. We also think that he's racist, sexist, and just an overall big idiot. Common quotes surrounding Trump are "who the hell would want to build a wall around Canada? Is that so the Americans can't leave when trump gets elected?".
Yup, that's the basic sentiment.
It might already be clear that my personal opinion of Trump isn’t very positive... We'll see if that changes after hearing what the billionaires have to say on the subject.
A message to the Americans
Just to put my Canadian thoughts into context… Remember, we are a couple steps removed from the US. We don't have a personal stake in the situation of everything that’s happening down there, so it's easy for us to shake our heads in astonishment. If you can enlighten us in the comments section, I know we’d all be better for it.
What? You thought I was going to go negative? Maybe tell them how ridiculous it is to have a candidate like Trump?
Nope, I'm reserving my judgement. I have a some very intelligent friends in the US who are voting for Trump, that's what sparked my interest in him in the first place.
The Billionaires supporting Trump
At least the two I care about...
Peter Thiel
Peter Thiel is forever a Silicon Valley God.
He’s the cofounder of PayPal, the first professional investor in Facebook, and he also helped take down a website called Gawker, among a laundry list of other achievements and interesting investments.
Peter Thiel is throwing his weight behind Trump, and on Monday we’re going to find out why. His endorsement to me is probably the strangest of any of them. He is a libertarian (Think Ron Swanson), but is also openly gay and the son of an immigrant family, the latter two don’t exactly fit well with Trump's plans. What this tells me is that Peter Thiel is more concerned on the impact the next President will have on economic growth instead of social issues. He’s quoted saying this in an interview with New York Times last Friday;
“The millions of people who vote for Trump are not doing it because of the worst things he said or did, that’s ridiculous. The Americans who are voting for Trump are doing it because they judge the situation of the country to be urgent. We’re at such a crucial point that you have to overlook personal characteristics.”
Huh. I guess that’s where he’s coming from.
Update:
On Monday Peter Thiel decided to do a Q&A about why he’s supporting Donald Trump, and any other burning questions people had for him.
Here’s Peter Thiel's speech. It’s pretty good...
If you’re short on time, here’s his main talking points...
“Both major candidates are imperfect people, to say the least”.
He goes on to say he obviously doesn't agree with lots of what Trump has said and done in the past, and he doesn’t think the millions of people voting for him do either. ‘Nobody thinks his comments about women were acceptable. I agree they were clearly offensive and inappropriate”. What he doesn’t believe, however, is that the people aren’t voting for Trump to endorse his flaws, “we’re voting for trump, because we judge the leadership of our Country to have failed”.
I’ll just let that sink in for a minute….
He goes on to ask the question ‘If Americans think the situation is serious, why would they think that Trump, of all people, could make it any better?’ He thinks it’s because of ‘the big things that Trump gets right’.
Here’s what he agrees with:
Free trade has not worked out well for all of Americans. Thiel believes that in theory, free trade sounds good, but in practice it just doesn’t work out the same way.
The size of the US trade deficit, show that something has gone very wrong. He believes the most developed country in the world (America) should be exporting capital to less developed countries, instead of importing more than 500 billion dollars every year.
Trump voters are tired of war. US has been at war for 15 years, spent $4.6 Trillion dollars, and more than two million people have lost their lives, with 5000 American soldiers killed, and yet they haven’t won.
He believes that Hillary’s no fly zone over Syria could lead the risk for a direct nuclear conflict, since it’s mostly Russian planes that would be affected.
Elites have a habit of denying difficult realities. That’s how bubbles form. Thiel thinks that if there is a difficult problem, people want to believe, to their detriment, in an easy solution.
I’ll leave you with this last quote from Peter Thiel:
“Nobody would suggest that Donald trump is a humble man. But the big things he’s right about, amount to a much-needed dose of humility in our politics. He doesn’t just want to make the country great, he wants to make it normal.
A normal country;
does not have a half a million-dollar trade deficit
Does not fight 5 simultaneous, undeclared wars
The government actually does its job.
“What Trump represents isn’t crazy, and isn’t going away. Trump points to a new American politics that overcomes denial, rejects bubble thinking, and reckons with reality.”
Definitely a persuasive fellow. Keep in mind that Peter Thiel talks from the perspective of being both gay, and the son of an immigrant family, which many would think wouldn’t normally support someone like Trump.
Maybe America really does need to change.
2. Carl Icahn
(Source: Forbes)
Who he is
The 44th richest man in the world is supporting Donald Trump, this in itself made me ask ‘Why?’
Carl is an American businessman, Investor, activist shareholder, and as a philanthropist. He is probably best known as an activist investor. He loves buying into a company until he has enough power to change members of the board, and then ‘Unlocks Value’ that the management was failing to unlock.
Why he supports Trump
The Jist of it is that he thinks that Donald Trump is ‘Right on” about how he (Trump) views the government, and that more government deregulation would be economically stimulating. "If he sticks with that economic theme, he should definitely win hands down, because I don't know why you wouldn't vote for him," Icahn said in a phone interview with CNBC's "Fast Money.
Icahn believes that the middle class is getting screwed, when CEO’s are getting paid $45million and the employees, doing the brunt of the work, are only getting $50,000. Something must change. Because of this Icahn thinks the middle class would be crazy not to vote for Trump.
You can see Trump's’ basic economic plan here
Icahn thinks that Hillary wants more and a bigger government which he thinks would not be good for America. He summed up his belief at the Delivering Alpha conference; "If you look ahead four years or three years even, if Trump gets elected this economy will be a lot better of than if Hillary is elected.”
My Opinion
I still believe Trump isn’t a good person, nothing can really change my opinion on that. I also think he could potentially do a lot of harm to the country by dividing its people. Having said that...
After hearing Peter Thiel's speech, and listening to my friends reasoning for why they are likely to vote for Donald trump, I must say, I’m starting to think he may be the better choice over the long term. Now this is only true if, and that's a big IF, he can deliver on the promises that he’s made.
One of the biggest problems I see for Trump as President is how he acts as a person. He will need to tone down his remarks (those ‘ists’ I mentioned earlier), and probably adjust his thought process on a lot of different things. Remember, he will literally be the leader of one of the most powerful countries in the world, therefore he will be a huge (read ‘uhge’) role model for children. As he is today, I see him failing miserably in this respect.
Will Trump be a good president?
In the short term, I think he’ll be disastrous. In the long term… Well, it depends how you define the word good.
If you think ‘good’ simply means that the economy of the US will do well, then sure, he could be a good president.
If you think the word ‘good’ includes personality and a moral compass, than I think the answer will likely change to a resounding no, because Trump isn’t scoring big in either category.
I think he will cause a lot of discord between the US and Mexico, (maybe even Canada) as well as any immigrants that he tries to oust. This will cause the worldview of the United States to turn much more negative, and could cause friction. Remember, we live in a world economy, and friction between those economies can lead to negative results.
Summary
Whatever happens on Tuesday, won’t really affect us that much in the long run. We just have to keep doing what we do. Invest in great companies, at great prices. And, if somehow he does get elected, we may get to see some of those great companies on our watch list actually go on sale! That sounds pretty excellent to me.
The next question is, ‘How will the market react if Trump is elected?’.
That’s what I’ll discuss next time.
Thanks for reading
Am I crazy? Or do you agree? Let me know what you think in the comments below!
We’ll talk again soon…
~Ryan Chudyk~
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